# Uncertainty Management Model
Take a moment and reflecting on the three critical questions transformation leaders face:
1. ***What*** do we need to do next?
2. How shall we ***do*** it?
3. And how will we work ***together***?
We believe that these can be summarised as three related domains of uncertainty:
1. Deciding.
2. Executing.
3. Relating.
This is illustrated as a Venn diagram as seen in Figure 1.
![[uncertainty-management-model-venn.png]]
**Figure 1 - Three domains of uncertainty**
## **🧭 The Three Domains (as Venn Circles)**
If we accept that in order to be competent in each domain a corresponding talent must emerge, then we can flip the three domains of uncertainty, into being three domains of talent to meet the requisite need.
| **Domain** | **Essence of talent** | **When done in isolation…** |
| -------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | --------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **[[🧭 Deciding]]** | Making sense of complexity, setting direction, prioritising what matters | You get insight but no traction — strategy without delivery |
| **[[⚙️ Executing]]** | Delivering predictably and adaptively under changing conditions | You get motion without meaning — busyness without alignment |
| **[[🤝 Relating]]** | Building trust, influence, and collaboration to move people together | You get empathy without impact — connection without consequence |
Or simply put:
- Deciding, focusses on navigating ambiguity and setting direction.
- Executing, focusses on creating systems that deliver reliably under change.
- Relating, focusses on shaping the human system that enables transformation.
## **⚪ The Overlapping Areas**
These intersections describe **the competencies that emerge when two talent domains meet**:
| **Talent Overlap** | **Emerging Competence** | **Meaning** | **Typical Strengths / Risks** |
| -------------------------------------- | --------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **[[🧭 Deciding]] + [[⚙️ Executing]]** | **[[Strategic Delivery]]** | Turning strategy into disciplined execution — the translation zone between vision and operations | + Results-focused and outcome-driven – Can overlook people dynamics and culture |
| **[[🧭 Deciding]] + [[🤝 Relating]]** | **[[Aligned Leadership]]** | Inspiring clarity and commitment through sensemaking and communication | + Creates buy-in and direction – Can drift without tangible follow-through |
| **[[⚙️ Executing]] + [[🤝 Relating]]** | **[[Collaborative Performance]]** | Delivering through trust and coordination — teams performing in rhythm | + Builds sustainable delivery systems – Can lose sight of strategic coherence |
Or simply put:
- Strategic delivery, focusses on turning insight into impact.
- Aligned Leadership, focusses on making meaning together.
- Collaborative Performance, focusses on delivering through trust and rhythm.
Adding these to the Venn diagram is illustrated in Figure 2.
![[uncertainty-management-model-venn-2.png]]
**Figure 2 - Three talent domains and their overlapping areas of competence**
## **🔴 Centre Point:** **Uncertainty Managed**
When all three overlap —
- strategic intent is clear ([[🧭 Deciding]]),
- delivery systems are effective ([[⚙️ Executing]]), and
- human dynamics are aligned ([[🤝 Relating]]) —
…you achieve **integration**:
> **The capacity to act decisively, adaptively, and together in conditions of uncertainty.**
That centre, **[[Uncertainty Managed]]**, isn’t the absence of uncertainty — it’s _the ability to move through it_ with coherence, connection, and confidence.
![[uncertainty-management-model-venn-3.png]]
**Figure 3 - Fully integrated talent domains creating uncertainty managed**
## **🧩 Summary View**
| **Talent Zone** | **Competence** | **Tagline / Description** |
| ---------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------- |
| [[🧭 Deciding]] + [[⚙️ Executing]] | **[[Strategic Delivery]]** | Turning insight into impact |
| [[🧭 Deciding]] + [[🤝 Relating]] | **[[Aligned Leadership]]** | Making meaning together |
| [[⚙️ Executing]] + [[🤝 Relating]] | **[[Collaborative Performance]]** | Delivering through trust and rhythm |
| [[🧭 Deciding]] + [[⚙️ Executing]] + [[🤝 Relating]] | **[[Uncertainty Managed]]** | Acting decisively, adaptively, and together |
# **🧭 Uncertainty Management and the Hidden Work of Transformation**
In the above Uncertainty Management model, the **three domains** are:
- **[[🧭 Deciding]]** (sense-making and direction-setting),
- **[[⚙️ Executing]]** (coordinating and delivering work), and
- **[[🤝 Relating]]** (navigating the human and political landscape) —
These, however, are not standalone. They _sit within and are shaped by_ two broader, continuous dynamics:
- **Learning** – how the organisation adapts, integrates feedback, evolves practices, and metabolises uncertainty.
- **Organising** – how it structures, aligns, enables, and sustains collective action.
![[uncertainty-management-model.png]]
**Figure 4 - Uncertainty Management model complete**
Now here’s the crux of this insight:
👉 **Learning and organising are not neutral activities — they consume enormous energy, attention, and emotional labour.**
Yet they’re often treated as “background noise” rather than the _real work_ of transformation. As a result, much of this load is silently carried by the **social system** — the unspoken agreements, informal networks, protective behaviours, and adaptive strategies people develop just to keep things functioning.
This idea is expanded in [[Hidden Work of Transformation]].
# Questions?
![[includes-calltoaction-reflective-1]]
>![[includes-hranchor-growth]]
# 🤝 Want to stay in touch?
![[includes-footer-substack]]
%%
---
# Local Resources
- ...